Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
